#1) FIVE Myths that you should pay little attention to this preseason
- Coach Speak: Don’t fall victim to one of the classic blunders – The most famous of which is, “never get involved in a land war in Asia,” but only slightly less well-known is this: “COACHES LIE!” Everyone’s favorite quote last year belonged to OC Nathaniel Hackett of the Buffalo Bills, “It’s real simple: We’re going to give (C.J. Spiller) the ball until he throws up.” The fact is that coaches lie; sometimes it’s intentional deception (yeah we’re looking at you Belichick), other times they just think one thing will happen but circumstances dictate otherwise. The chagrined fantasy owners that hung their season’s hopes on this single quote should learn from this mistake. Here’s one for this year: Don’t you fall into this trap. Andre Ellington is not Adrian Peterson, folks. He’s 5’9” and weighs less than 200 lbs. Mark it on the wall, not only will he not get that many touches per game, but he also will be more effective if he’s kept fresh with far fewer touches per game. Heck, Jamaal Charles didn’t even get up to 22 touches per game last year, and he’s the only bell-cow of comparable size to Ellington. This is a pipe dream, and please don’t fall prey to the one of the oldest fantasy blunders in the book.
- Player Speak: “I’m going to rush for two thousand yards this year.” “I see no reason why I can’t catch 20 TDs this season… that’s my guarantee.” This talk is a dime a dozen. Let’s base our expectations on past indicators and talent levels more than a player’s unrealistic aspirations. It’s fun to listen to the Chad Ochocincos of the world, but let’s let it be what it is… entertainment value only.
- Strength of Schedule: Every year publications and articles alike will tell you why certain match-ups are going to be cake walks and others are going to be brutal. The fact of the matter is, they simply don’t know. Don’t fool yourself in thinking you have any type of accuracy when judging schedules before the season starts. The NFL is a reshuffle league. Those that thought the Kansas City Defense was going to be a cupcake matchup last year looked pretty silly once the pads were on.
- Contract Year talk: This is one of those confirmation bias examples where people say after the fact that Player X performed better because of his contract incentive. Let’s face it guys, with salary caps and contract structures these days, players are playing to keep their careers alive nearly every time they step on the field. Until someone completes a league-wide study demonstrating a significant statistical difference among contract players vs. the rest of the league, then continue to treat players homogeneously when it comes to contract years. I often hear this thrown in when people stump for a specific player. Something like, “I love this player, this offense, and it’s a contract year. I’m expecting big things.” Then when the player get’s paid before the season starts, they never change their opinion. Either it matters or it doesn’t. We don’t know how a player is motivated by money, so let’s not pretend we can read the tea leaves into which incentives motivate a player.
- Hate on player size: If a player is good enough to play in the NFL, team execs will give him a shot. It really is the ultimate meritocracy. Drew Brees is putting up some all-time numbers and is nowhere near the 6’0” height he is billed at. Russel Wilson just won the Super Bowl and might be 5’11’ with his long-grass cleats on. See if these sound familiar, “Adrian Peterson is too tall at 6’2” with an upright running style, so he’s bound to be injury prone.” -FALSE – or “A strong breeze would blow DeSean Jackson over. He looks 160 pounds, soaking wet. Good luck in the NFL, kid.” -BIG PRODUCER. You’ll hear much of the same this offseason about players like Tavon Austin. He may be just 5’8” but there’s no chance he doesn’t weigh within 5 pounds of DeSean Jackson, and his team believed in him so much that they traded up to get him in the top-10 of the draft last year despite his diminutive stature. Plus he’ll rarely get jammed off the line, as he plays in the slot. Players like MJD, Ray Rice, Darren Sproles, Steve Smith, Wes Welker, etc. have been proving wrong the league expectations for small players for years. The real questions revolve around getting off the line, shedding tackles, staying healthy, etc. If your analysis begins and ends with height or weight, you’re leaving a ton on the table.
#2) FIVE Players you should pay lots of attention to this preseason
I was getting all hot and bothered to put Jamaal Charles at the top of this list with all his recent holdout talk, but this just happened:
- Rob Gronkowski- There’s no question what he’ll do if he’s on the field, namely, huge numbers. This is the ultimate health question, and I doubt we’ll gain a ton of clarity on the knee issue until just before the season starts. Knowing Bill Belichick’s love for cloak and dagger reports, it’ll unfortunately be 30 minutes into the first game of the season before we actually know how ready he is to play. Remember all the back injury talk last year when he was supposedly cleared to play 3 full games before he actually did? Don’t let that snake bite you again.
- David Wilson- He finally got medically cleared from his neck injury in the last couple days and now we need to see if he shows the spark he’s capable of in the preseason. I could see a situation develop in the first month of the season where the Giants are slinging it while playing from behind, David Wilson comes in and takes a swing pass 65-yards to the house and from then on we see a dramatically reduced role for Rashad Jennings. As of right now there’s talk of Rashad Jennings being the between the 20’s carrier, Wilson being the change of pace back, and Andre Williams being the goal-line guy. That 3-headed monster is a recipe for a fantasy nightmare.
- DeSean Jackson/Pierre Garcon- The question is who’s going to be getting the X receiver and who’s going to be the Z receiver in this Jay Gruden offense. In other words, who’s going to have the A.J. Green role of this new offense and who’s going to have the Marvin Jones role. Early reports are that D-Jax is going to be the go to guy. If that’s the case, then Garcon will be getting even fewer looks than I have baked into his rankings. Keep in mind that he led the NFL in receptions (113) and targets (181) last year, and that was the main thing that drove his value.
- Chris Johnson- It’ll be hard to know how the J-E-T-S plan to use CJ’s after-burners. Is he going to be THE guy in this offense (like we’ve already heard some indeterminate coach speak about), or if he’ll be splitting carries. Look for context clues and how he’s deployed in the preseason for a better understanding.
- Emmanuel Sanders/Montee Ball- These two are ultimately tied to the best offense in football, and that’s why it’s so important. Can Sanders pick up the offense and take on a substantial portion of Eric Decker’s void. As far as Montee Ball goes, I’ll be looking closely at his ball security and pass protection during his limited time in the preseason. Ultimately, if he loses the faith of the coaching staff or more importantly, Peyton Manning. . . then he’ll be the biggest 1st round bust this season. Let’s not forget how quickly Ronnie Hillman became an afterthought with those 3 preseason fumbles in ‘13.
#3) FIVE Players I like more than most based on their early ADP
- Reuben Randle- You can’t give the Giants a free pass on the absolute dumpster fire we saw last season. But I also see no way that they can be nearly as bad last year. With Nicks out of town, and only rookie Odell Beckham to push Randle for looks behind primary option Victory Cruz. . . I see Randle as a guy that can significantly raise his 611 yards and 6 TDs from last season, as the rising offensive tide will lift all boats and his role looks to increase simultaneously. This is an affordable price tag to chance it. Current ADP-145.
- Alfred Morris- I’m a high floor guy when it comes to my first and second round players. I just don’t like taking the risky, higher ceiling player in my first four picks of the draft. Statistics have shown that the high probability fantasy playoff teams are the ones that connect on their first 3 draft picks. It’s just hard to win without those guys performing. I’m not concerned that Jay Gruden’s offense will not be as conducive. Morris literally had everything around him go as poorly as possible last year. The Redskins defense couldn’t keep the running game as a viable option in the second half of most games and he had 7 TDs poached by RB Roy Helu and FB Darrel Young. . . yet he still produced with an NFL leading 2.5 Yards After Contact. Morris is the type guy that’s not going to be a top-3 back this year, but he’s also not going to finish outside of the top-20 at the RB position. Give me bankable production this early in my draft. Current ADP- 25.
- Joique Bell- The front office signed him to a 3 year – $9.3 million deal this offseason, so we know they have plans to utilize him heavily. He’s a bigger RB than his counterpart Reggie Bush, but he can still do all the things that Bush can (they became the first backfield duo in history to put up both 500 Rushing and Receiving yards each). Detroit knows that they’ll need to limit Bush’s touches to keep him fresh and at his best in the late season, so Jukin’ Joique will be guaranteed touches. But on the other hand, Bush is getting older with the career touches piling up and is certainly a risk to miss some time. So we’ve got a guaranteed split in the mean time, with a possibility of being a featured back with a Bush injury. That’s the kind of juice that’s worth the squeeze. Current ADP- 71
- Michael Floyd- I love the value of the young and talented receiver to the wizened veteran receiver that garners most of the defensive attention. The Reggie Wayne role to Marvin Harrison, or the Randy Moss role to Chris Carter, if you will. In this case it’s Michael Floyd to Larry Fitzgerald. Floyd is bigger, faster and had more yardage than Fitz last year. Yet, NFL defenses will key in on Fitzgerald, allowing Floyd to run free on the opposite side of the field. He’s the Cards main vertical threat… Expect 1,000+ and 6 as a floor here with upside for much more. Current ADP- 65
- Roddy White- Oldie but goodie category. He’s getting on up there in age, but unlike RB’s, good wide receivers can age gracefully. He proved the high ankle sprain that plagued him last season was behind him by season’s end when he began producing again. Julio Jones lining up opposite will keep the double teams to a minimum. But even if Julio gets a ton of targets, the departure of Tony Gonzalez will allow for a healthy dose of targets toward old reliable. This could be a big bounce back with top-10 WR value being drafted nearly 50th overall. Lot’s to like here. Current ADP- 49
Photo courtesy of Mark Runyon | Pro Football Schedules
#4) FIVE Players I like LESS than most based on their early ADP
- Marshawn Lynch- Coming into the 2013 season, analysts were fading Arian Foster because his workload of 956 carries from 2010-12 was absurd. Well Lynch has a whopping 1,094 touches in his past 3 seasons! He carried the ball 401 times last year when you include the playoffs. You can see where this is going. Remember Larry Johnson? There’s a cliff year coming, and with his abusive running style it’s coming sooner rather than later. Plus you’re looking at a guy that hasn’t exactly been a beacon of health throughout his career, since he’s had some pretty serious back issues in the past. Some people will cheat him up for the consistency he’s shown the past few seasons, but I’m trying to read the tea leaves for this season, not the last few. Wyatt Earp says that the cliff is coming, and HELL is coming with it. It’s okay if I’m wrong this year, and the cliff’s actually two years out, but it’s not advisable to play with fire so early in your draft. Current ADP- 5
- Rob Gronkowski- Yeah, I get it. He’s an absolute monster when he’s on the field. I just don’t trust his extensive injury history. Even if the knee’s behind him. What about the back issues, the arm issues. So many surgeries, so little time played. He’s only 25 years old.. but he’s fast becoming the Tight End version of Percy Harvin. Current ADP- 32
- Andre Johnson- Another impending cliff story. He’s got an injury history that’s not the best. He’s got erratic QB play. He’s openly upset at the team for not upgrading its QB situation. He’s never been a big TD contributor. DeAndre Hopkins will improve and be more of a focus for the offense this year. Too many negatives for me to view him as a top-10 WR this year… yet some are still drafting him like it. Current ADP- 34
- Peyton Manning- It has nothing to do with his performance… which will undoubtedly be stellar as long as he and his bony-fusioned neck stays injury free. It’s just a matter of, if you take away that opening 7 TD performance and think like everyone else on the planet that those numbers are not repeatable… then you can’t consider him much better than Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. In my opinion there’s not a full round difference between Manning and those other two. So they all are late second or early third rounders to me… yet, Peyton’s being drafted 8th overall on average right now. Current ADP- 8
- Frank Gore- It’s now a crowded backfield. They’re talking about dropping his carries by 50. His career usage is intense. He’s 31 years old. I don’t think we’re going to see 1,100 and 8 TDs like he’s been so bankable for in the past. At some point in the draft he will become a boring bargain player, it’s just not at this going rate. Current ADP- 47
#5) FIVE football analysts (in no particular order) that when they talk… I listen
- Greg Cosell of NFL Films
- Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Fantasy Sports
- Ray Flowers of Fantasy Alarm
- Eric Karabell of ESPN
- John Hansen of FantasyGuru